More Than 55% of Cerrado Native Vegetation Already Lost, New Review Reveals

With 55% of its native habitat gone, the Cerrado is in crisis. Preserving this biodiversity hotspot demands immediate reform and the protection of Indigenous rights.

Guest blog post by Cássio Cardoso Pereira

“In addition to surviving some of the poorest soils in intertropical Brazil, the vegetation of the Cerrado has achieved the ecological feat of withstanding wildfires, rising from its own ashes like a kind of phoenix among Brazil’s ecosystems. It cannot, however, withstand the violent technological artifices invented by so-called civilized men.”

Aziz Ab’Saber, 2003 (translated)

Often overshadowed by the Amazon, the Cerrado is the second-largest Ecodomain in South America. Despite covering 24% of the territory and sustaining major watersheds, it has historically been sidelined in global conservation dialogues.

Our detailed review recently published in Nature Conservation warns that this biodiversity hotspot is currently facing a massive, multi-faceted ecological crisis. Despite its significance, the region has seen more than 55% of its native vegetation converted, an area exceeding 1 million km², with the vast majority of this destruction occurring within the last five decades.

Detailed maps of the Cerrado Ecodomain in Brazil.
Land use and land cover (LULC) in the Cerrado Ecodomain in 1985 and 2023, revealing significant changes in the spatial structure of the territory. An intensification of human activities can be observed, with emphasis on agricultural expansion,
which resulted in the significant replacement of native vegetation by alternative uses. This process represents an accelerated landscape transformation over the last four decades. These maps were made using the Cerrado shapefile developed by Cássio Cardoso Pereira, with LULC data available from MapBiomas (2024).

While recent data suggests a slight reduction in annual deforestation rates, the accumulated loss continues to climb, making the Cerrado the Ecodomain in Brazil with the greatest loss of native vegetation.

Graph presenting the annual clearing in Cerrado Ecodomain.
Annual clearing in the Cerrado (2001–2025) according to PRODES (INPE 2025). Bars represent the total area cleared each year (km²), with colors ranging from dark orange (highest values) to light orange (lowest values), indicating relative variation in intensity. Arrows indicate the percentage change compared to the previous year: increases (↑, red), decreases (↓, green), and stability (→, black, 0.0%). These data do not detect degradation, only complete removal of natural vegetation. Annual data refer to the so-called “reference year”, which runs from August of one year to July of the following year, based on satellite images with a resolution of 10 to 30 meters. The icons used in this figure are from Wikimedia licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. Figure design: Cássio Cardoso Pereira.

This expansion is driven by a combination of agricultural and urban growth, mining, and land speculation, creating a landscape that is increasingly fragmented and ecologically compromised.

Inverted forest and hidden carbon

One of the things that make Cerrado truly unique is its “inverted forest“. Unlike tropical rainforests that store their biomass in high canopies, the Cerrado has achieved an ecological feat of survival by storing approximately 90% of its carbon belowground through massive, deep root systems. This underground network makes the Ecodomain a critical carbon sink and a primary regulator of water.

Schematic of the inverted forest carbon sink capacities in the Cerrado Ecodomain.
Schematic representation of the distribution of carbon stocks in the Cerrado, characterized as an “inverted forest” due to the predominance of biomass and carbon belowground. Estimates were obtained from Terra et al. (2023). Figure design: Walisson Kenedy-Siqueira.

However, misguided restoration efforts that focus solely on planting exotic trees in naturally open areas can further exacerbate this issue, highlighting the need for restoration strategies that prioritize ecological functionality and native seed banks over simple afforestation.

Ecosystem diversity and conservation challenges

However, it is not just the vast tropical savanna in Cerrado that makes up this inverted forest, but the complex and interdependent mosaic of grasslands, savannas, and forests, each with distinct structures, ecological processes, and vulnerabilities. Treating it as homogeneous invisibilizes both grassland and forest formations, complicating effective conservation policies.

For example, natural grasslands, especially in the montane Campos Rupestres, occupy limited areas, harbor high endemism, and face strong pressures from mining, biological invasions, and increased fire. Whilst savannas, although dominant in the area, have been widely converted into monocultures, exotic pastures, and forestry, compromising ecological integrity.  

The major anthropogenic threats to the ecosystems of Cerrado Ecodomain
Main anthropogenic threats to the Cerrado resulting from land-use changes, ranked by impact on each ecosystem type (I–III: grassland, savanna, and forest). The ecosystems illustrated are according to Ribeiro and Walter (2008). For more details on each ecosystem. Figure design: Walisson Kenedy-Siqueira.

Even though some species are adapted to natural fire, many ecosystems, such as forests, the marshland formations Veredas, and the montane Campos Rupestres, are highly vulnerable. Exotic species invasions and increased frequency and intensity of fires exacerbate ecological losses even without direct deforestation. We’ve found out that nearly all fires in the Cerrado are human-induced and occur outside natural regimes, causing cumulative degradation.

Threatened biodiversity and conservation gaps

Our research highlights a troubling pattern of ‘silent extinctions’ across the Cerrado. While this Ecodomain is home to thousands of unique plants and animals, we have identified a massive gap in how these species are monitored. Plants and invertebrates are the most threatened yet the least studied. This means species are vanishing before they can even be scientifically documented. Current policies are failing because they rely on incomplete data; we cannot protect what we have not yet cataloged. To prevent total collapse, we must expand our conservation criteria to protect not just individual species, but the complex ecological interactions that sustain the region’s water and soil.

The threatened species in Cerrado Ecodomain
Percentage distribution of threatened species among different biological groups in the Cerrado. The information was adapted from the IUCN Red List (2024), the Flora and Funga of Brazil portal (2024), the official national list of threatened species by MMA (2022), terrestrial vertebrate data from Vieira-Alencar et al. (2025), freshwater fish data from Lima and Ribeiro (2011), and invertebrate data from Embrapa (2023). Figure design: Walisson Kenedy-Siqueira.

Cerrado’s water crisis

The environmental crisis in the Cerrado is also a “silent water crisis” that threatens Brazil’s national security. The Ecodomain sustains the country’s main watersheds and major aquifers, yet this balance is being disrupted by irrigated agriculture, agrochemical contamination, and dam construction. Excessive surface and groundwater withdrawal is already leading to reduced river flows and the degradation of Veredas, which are essential for water regulation.

Paradoxically, the very sectors that drive this degradation, such as agribusiness and energy production, are the most dependent on these water resources, creating a cycle of increasing water insecurity. Protecting the Cerrado’s riparian zones and aquifers is no longer just an environmental concern but a prerequisite for the survival of the regional economy and climate resilience.

Disconnect between law and reality

The Cerrado is facing a dangerous disconnect between environmental law and ecological reality. Our research reveals that current protection is startlingly thin: while we cataloged 706 Conservation Units, they cover only 8% of the Ecodomain, with less than 3% under strict protection.

To assist researchers and policymakers, we have compiled an unprecedented dataset of these units, including the often overlooked Private Natural Heritage Reserves (RPPNs)  and crucial ecotones, available at: https://doi.org/10.3897/natureconservation.61.168273.suppl1.

However, data alone isn’t enough. The Brazilian Forest Code, specifically the 20% Reserva Legal (RL) and the narrow 30-meter Áreas de Preservação Permanent (APPs) are ecologically insufficient. These leave vital formations like Veredas and Campos Rupestres as isolated, vulnerable fragments.

To prevent ecosystem collapse and secure Brazil’s water supply, we advocate for urgent reforms: increasing RL requirements to at least 35%, expanding protection zones to reflect biological reality, and enforcing strict traceability to decouple agricultural production from habitat loss.

Recognition and protection of Indigenous lands

Two Kayapó indigenous people
Kayapó people from the state of Pará. Their lands are located in the Amazon, but include a Cerrado enclave, which is shown in the review. Photo credit to: Adriano Adriano Jerozolimski

Beyond legal designations, we emphasize that the future of the Cerrado depends on recognizing the rights of Indigenous peoples, whose traditional knowledge and sustainable land management have maintained the ecosystem’s balance for millennia.

For instance, recent laws such as the Marco Temporal and agribusiness proposals threaten to reduce their territories and accelerate biodiversity loss, making it urgent to protect and fully recognize these lands to conserve the Cerrado and its ecological resilience.

Mobilizing knowledge and adding value

Effective conservation requires recognizing the Cerrado as a biodiversity hotspot with dedicated legal instruments capable of protecting its full ecological heterogeneity.

Moving forward, the extractive logic of the past must be replaced with with regenerative systems, prioritizing conservation, restoration, and biodiversity-based economic alternatives, including agroforestry, payments for ecosystem services, fiscal incentives such as ICMS Ecológico. Ultimately, these measures will help promote conservation, social justice and sustainable certifications that recognize the Cerrado’s biodiversity as a core economic asset

Original publicaiton:

Pereira, C.C., Walisson Kenedy-Siqueira, Maia, L.R., da, V., Arantes-Garcia, L., Fernandes, S., França, G., Carvalho, G., Rodrigues, J., Salm, R. and Fearnside, P.M. (2026). The Cerrado crisis review: highlighting threats and providing future pathways to save Brazil’s biodiversity hotspot. Nature Conservation, 61, pp.29–70. doi: https://doi.org/10.3897/natureconservation.61.168273

New commentary on the famous ‘Warning to Humanity’ paper brings up global inequalities

Dubbed as ‘the most talked about paper’, the cautionary publication is suggested to have omitted a non-western view on inequality that impedes global sustainability

By pointing out the western lifestyle is not “the norm and end goal of societal evolution”, the research team of Dr Mohsen Kayal (University of Perpignan, France) contributes to the debate on the urgency of achieving sustainability, as ignited by the largely publicised article “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice” published in BioScience in 2017. Their Response paper in the open-access journal Rethinking Ecology emphasizes that societies in developing countries are often more dependent on natural resources, while least responsible for the ecological crisis.

While expressing explicit support and endorsement for the call made in the original paper, the team argue that several of its recommendations “address symptoms rather than root causes”, while steering away from historical patterns and underlying drivers of the global socio-economic system, namely those relating to wealth inequality, human demography, and food production.

According to the researchers, the desired universal sustainability cannot be achieved in a situation of inequitable wealth distribution. They highlight the link between the consumerism and neocolonialism in the western society and the environmental declines. Meanwhile, communities in the developing world are much more vulnerable to ecological disasters and their homelands are being overexploited and compromised for the production of a major part of the commodities sold around the world.

Inequitable distribution is also evident in the ecological footprint of the western world as opposed to poorer regions. The team of Dr Mohsen Kayal question the appeal made in the Warning to Humanity paper that restricting birth rates is of primary concern when it comes to mitigating the anthropogenic effect on the planet. Rather, they argue that it is the excessive resource consumption and ecosystem-destructive practices observed in the western lifestyle that need to be prioritized.

Citing the 2017 data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the authors note that there is indeed enough food being produced to meet the needs of even more people on Earth than there currently are. However, it is again the unequal distribution of resources that results in both hunger and obesity. In the meantime, the replacement of the current industrial model of agriculture with a suite of environmentally friendly practices (e.g. cover crops, diverse crop rotations), the adoption of ecologically-based farming and well-managed grazing could preserve soils and their properties, while also increasing yields, resilience to climate change and socio-economic development.

“Sustainability can only be achieved through prioritizing global ethics, including universal equality and respect for all forms of life,” conclude the authors of the Response paper. “Sustainable solutions to Earth’s socio-ecological crisis already exist, however humanity still needs to realize that pursuing the same practices that created these problems is not going to solve them.”

Global Resource Trade

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Original source:

Kayal M, Lewis H, Ballard J, Kayal E (2019) Humanity and the 21st century’s resource gauntlet: a commentary on Ripple et al.’s article “World scientists’ warning to humanity: a second notice”. Rethinking Ecology 4: 21-30. https://doi.org/10.3897/rethinkingecology.4.32116